Tata Steel UK Receives Lenders' Consent To Debt Covenants - May 30, 2009

Tata Steel UK, a 100% indirect subsidiary of Tata Steel has received Lenders' approval to reset the covenants in its £3.7 billion acquisition-related senior debt facility. The Lenders voted unanimously in favour of the company's proposal. As part of the agreement reached with the banks, testing of the facility's earnings-related covenants will largely be suspended till March 2010 and will then resume with significantly higher flexibility than in the case of the original covenants.

Furthermore, there will be no increase in the current level of interest costs for the remaining life of the loan. The revised covenant package does not involve any additional finance from the Lenders or rescheduling of its debt-servicing commitments.

As part of the package Tata Steel will inject £425 million into Tata Steel UK in a phased manner, of which around £200 million will be used to prepay debt and de-leverage the European balance sheet.

The company made this announcement during the trading hours today, 30 May 2009.

Steel In Demand After Minister At Additional On Imports - May 29, 2009

Steel Authority of India (up 6.18%), JSL (up 5.84%), Tata Steel (up 3.79%), JSW Steel (up 1.34%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 1.07%), and Bhushan Steel (up 1.04%), surged Virbhadra Singh, the new steel minister said today, 29 May 2009, that India will consider slapping additional import tax on steel to protect the domestic industries from cheap imports. He added that the issue has to be addressed immediately.

Singh also said the government would ensure production capacity expansion of state-owned firms Steel Authority of India and unlisted steel maker Rashtriya Ispat Nigam.

Indian steel firms had been lobbying for an anti-dumping duty on cheap imports to protect domestic sector.

The Director-General (Safeguards) had in April 2009 recommended a provisional safeguard duty of 25% on imports of hot rolled coils/sheets/strips up to the cost, insurance and freight (CIF) value of $600 a tonne, considered a reasonable benchmark.

However, the government in first week of May 2009, deferred its decision to impose provisional safeguard duty, saying that it needs to examine the matter further after taking views of the end user industry and it will then decide on the matter within 60 days.

At that time the steel secretary had said that there is no urgency to consider the safeguard duty. The steel ministry had a view that since the Indian steel prices are already trading at premium to the landed cost, there is not much threat to the steel industry.

The fact of the matter is that there has been a significant increase in imports over the last couple of months at low prices. This has impacted the domestic prices, which fell about 40% from the peak during July- August 2008.

Spot Rubber Remains Weak - May 26, 2009

Kottayam: On Monday, spot rubber turned weak. The market opened up on covering purchases quoting sheet rubber at Rs 100.50 a kg on early trades but later lost momentum on buyer resistance in line with the domestic futures on NMCE. The grade moved down to Rs 99.50 from Rs 100 a kg during the previous weekend.

RSS 4 dropped at its June futures to Rs 98.00 (99.14), July to Rs 95.44 (96.16), August to Rs 93.20 (93.71) and September to Rs 91 (91.90) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

The May futures for RSS 3 improved to Yen 156.5 (Yen 153.6) (Rs 77.83), June to Yen 155.2 (Yen 151.5), July to Yen 157.4 (Yen 154.4), August to Yen 159.9 (Yen 156.5), September to Yen 162.4 (Yen 158.5) and October to Yen 164.2 (Yen 160.7) a kg on early trades on Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). The grade closed at Yen 155.4 (June), Yen 157.2 (July), Yen 159.9 (August), Yen 161.7 (September) and Yen 164.1 (October) a kg during the night session.

RSS 3 (spot) dropped further to Rs 83 (83.24) a kg at Bangkok. The grade firmed up to Rs 80.87 (79.53) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 99.50 (100); RSS-5: 97 (97); ungraded: 95.50 (96); ISNR 20: 93.50 (93.50) and latex 60 per cent: 73.50 (72).

Kerala Toward Increase Cashew Amount Produced - May 25, 2009

Kochi: The Kerala Government has set up the Agency in increase the Cashew Cultivation. The government move is the result of constant fall in area under cashew cultivation in the State and the consequent fall in output, Cashew was mostly grown in the mid and highlands of Kerala for several decades. But after the arrival of rubber as a lucrative plantation crop, the growers have switched over to it in current decades.

As a result the area under cashew reduced to 80,000 hectares in 2006 from about two lakh hectares three decades ago, pushing Kerala to the fourth position in cashew output at the national level.

According to Directorate of Cashew and Cocoa Development (DCCD), cashew production in Kerala dropped to 67,000 tonnes from 80,000 hectares in 2006.

Pepper Futures Trading Exhibits Elevated Instability - May 25, 2009

Pepper futures trading witnessed high volatility with the prices oscillating up and down during the week. Manipulators who are interested in making money are supposed to have taken the market for a ride.

"Without any co-relation to the fundamentals the pepper market has been moving up and down. Speculation is part and parcel of futures trading but gambling and market manipulation under the guise of speculation is not in the interest of the growers or the traders", market sources said.

On Saturday, all the contracts on NCDEX ended marginally below the last weekend close. The May delivery matured on 21st and 1,178 tonnes of pepper were delivered. The drop in the contracts was from Rs 5 to Rs 69 a quintal at the weekend close. On NMCE it was from Rs5 to Rs78 a quintal.

Total turn over during the week on NCDEX went up by 621 tonnes to close at 22,832 tonnes. Total open interest fell by 545 tonnes to close 6,852 tonnes on Saturday close.

Mixed Trend By Agri Counter Going On NCDEX - May 23, 2009

MUMBAI: Mixed movement was witnessed in agri commodities with spices closing up. NCDEX registered a total turnover of Rs 1,625 crore with active trade in chana, guar seed, soyabean, soya oil, pepper and rape mustard seed.Pepper closed up at Rs 13,522 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 192 crore, chilli closed up at Rs 3,847 per while jeera closed up at Rs 10,435 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 87 crore.

Chana closed down at Rs 2,149 per quintal registering a turnover of Rs 184 crore while guar seed closed down at Rs 1,665 per quintal posting a turnover of Rs 172 crore. Soyabean closed down at Rs 1,963 per quintal with a turnover of Rs 244 crore, soya oil closed flat at Rs 546.65 per 10 kg recording a turnover of Rs 190 crore while rape mustard seed closed down at Rs 456 per 20 kg with a turnover of Rs 186 crore.

MCX registered a turnover of Rs 1,981.9 crore with bullion turnover of Rs 934 crore that consisted of gold contracts worth Rs 556 crore and silver contracts worth Rs 378 crore.

Gold February contract traded up at Rs 10,381 per 10 gm while silver March contract was up at Rs 19,262 per kg. In the base metals segment, copper contracts turnover was Rs 280 crore and the February delivery contract went down at Rs 275 per kg. Turnover of all zinc contracts was Rs 93 and zinc December contract was down at Rs 95.60 per kg.

Turnover of all lead contracts was Rs 66 crore and the December contract went down at Rs 104.70 per kg. In the energy segment, crude oil contracts clocked a turnover of Rs 295 crore. Crude oil January contract moved up at Rs 3, 714 per barrel.

Spot Rubber Remainder Established - May 23, 2009

Kottayam: On Friday, Spot rubber remained unchanged. The market lost its direction in the absence of actual consumer-based buying as it now rules almost Rs 20 above the global price levels. Sheet rubber closed flat at Rs 100 a kg amidst extremely thin volumes. The June futures for RSS 4 dropped at Rs 99.60 (99.57), July at Rs 96.70 (97.04), August at Rs 94.25 (94.86) and September at Rs 92 (92) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

RSS 3 declined its May futures to Yen153.6 (154.1) (Rs 77.06), June to Yen 151.5 (153.5), July to Yen 154.4 (156.1), August to Yen 156.5 (158.5), September to Yen 158.5 (160.3) and October to Yen 160.7 (162.5) a kg on early trades on Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).

The grade closed consecutively at Yen 152.5, Yen 151.5, Yen 156, Yen 157.2, Yen 160.1 and Yen 162.5 a kg at the night session.

RSS 3 (spot) moved down to Rs 83.24 (83.72) a kg at Bangkok. The grade slipped further to Rs 79.53 (79.93) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 100 (100); RSS-5: 97 (97); ungraded: 96 (96); ISNR 20: 93.50 (93.50) and latex 60 per cent: 71 (71).

Global Tea Production Likely To Fall 15 Per Cent - May 22, 2009

According to the figures released by the Indian Tea Association (ITA), global tea production is expected to fallen to 44.5 million kg till March. Nevertheless, the global shortfall was 80-100 million kg with the pipeline deficit.

Total production from the major producing countries like India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Indonesia, Malawi, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Zimbabwe stood at 254.6 million kg during January-March, as compared to 299 million kg in the corrosponding period last year. Sri Lanka is the worst affected with decline of 41 per cent. Bangladesh comes close with a decline of 34 per cent. India is down 9 per cent, led by south India.

Domestic tea industry representatives said India suffered a fall of 15-18 million kg in April, while till March, the decrease was 8.1 million kg. The country started the year with a pipeline deficit of 25 million kg.

Cotton Imports To Be Expected To Surge 60 Per Cent - May 22, 2009

Cotton imports in India may report a 30-60 per cent rise in the current cotton year (Oct'08-Sep'09) as international prices quote at a marginal discount to domestic prices after the government increased the floor price, or the MSP of cotton. The country could import around 8-10 lakh bales this year as against six lakh bales of 170 kg each imported last year, say industry officials.

DK Nair, secretary general, Confederation of Indian Textile Industries (CITI), says imports could total up to 10 lakh bales in the current year. "Imports of extra long staple cotton will account for between four and five lakh bales and short and medium staple variety 6 lakh bales," he said.

Steel Demand Likely Toward Come Across Positive Further - May 22, 2009

New Delhi: Steel consumption, which has seen a growth of 4 per cent in the last few months, is expected to get better going ahead. The steel consumption will grow by minimum 5 per cent in the year 2009-10, Steel Secretary, P K Rastogi told on May 21. This should be music to the ears of Indian steelmakers who are expecting the much-needed boost to demand coming from its largest consumer, the infrastructure sector.

The kind of thrust the government is giving for building infrastructure, mainly social infrastructure, so that should give a boost from social and construction infrastructure which constitutes 64 per cent of the total steel demand, Seshagiri Rao, JMD & Group CFO, JSW Steel said.

Steel demand is picking up but the prices are not expected to rise. Despite a marginal increase in steel prices, especially the long products over the last few weeks, these may not be sustainable.India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the measure of industrial activity, has fallen for the last three months.

Economists believe that it may take a little while before demand in the economy bottoms out. Prices will remain under pressure, in a scenario where most of the global steel industries are operating at 65-70 per cent levels.

It is likely to impact domestic prices despite domestic companies operating at good (capacity) utilisation levels, says Navin Vohra, National Leader of Metals and Mining at Ernst and Young.

It is not just demand-supply dynamics but an appreciating rupee is also hurting the industry, making the imports cheaper.In the last 4-5 days international steel prices have firmed up going to $425-430/tn but rupee has also gone up, so prices are up but given the international parity I don't think the prices should go up in India, Vinod Garg, ED-Commercial at Ispat Industries said.

The rupee has gained over 3 per cent since the UPA has got a clear majority. Currency traders are expected the rupee to touch 45 against the dollar in the near future.Indian prices are already higher than the international prices by about $100/tn and the gap is widening with the appreciation of rupee.

Steel producers had pitched for an anti-dumping or a safeguard duty to take full advantage of the domestic demand and make imports expensive to insulate their business to a large extent, but the duty is not expected for at least next 2 months. Experts suggest that the steel prices will remain under pressure.

Spot Rubber Left Overs Established - May 21, 2009

Kottayam: On Wednesday, spot rubber closed nearly unchanged. The majority of the traders preferred to wait for a clear trend to emerge as monsoon is about at the door steps. A weak closing in the leading international indices also weighed on sentiments during the session. Sheet rubber closed flat at Rs 98 a kg, while ISNR 20 improved marginally by 50 paise on scattered transactions.

The June futures for RSS 4 ended firm at Rs 98.75 (97.87), July at Rs 96.75 (95.91), August at Rs 94.30 (93.55) and September at Rs 91.40 (90.75) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

The May futures for RSS 3 closed at Yen 153 (154) (Rs 75.88), June at Yen 154 (155), July at Yen 158.8 (157.7), August at Yen 160.8 (160.5), September at Yen 162.9 (162.5) and October at Yen 164.9 (164.8) a kg at its day session while the grade finished at Yen 155.2 (Rs 77.01), Yen 155.6, 157.5, 160, 161.9 and 164 a kg consecutively during the night session on Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). RSS 3 (spot) declined to Rs 83.60 (84.45) a kg at Bangkok. The grade weakened to Rs 79.96 (80.22) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 98 (98); RSS-5: 95 (95); ungraded: 93 (93); ISNR 20: 92.50 (92) and latex 60 per cent: 70 (70).

Government Assured That Cotton Seed Is Not In Shortage - May 21, 2009

According to the government, in Maharashtra, there is no shortage of cotton seed or anywhere in the country. The government is closely watching the necessity and availability of seed. "The overall availability of cotton seed at 235,000 quintals in the country is very comfortable against the demand of 187,000 quintals projected by the states for the Kharif season.

Similarly, no shortage of seed has been reported by Maharashtra with availability of more than 85,000 quintals on requirement of 71,000 quintals," the agriculture ministry said in a statement.

Rubber Imports Fail To Bring Relief To Consumers - May 21, 2009

Kochi: The natural rubber imports with huge volumes have failed to bring any respite in rubber prices. This would have given a relief to the consumers as prices continue to remain high. India's rubber imports unexpectedly started rising and imports during the year are expected to twice to 160,000 tonnes as international prices have remained lesser than Indian prices.

However, synthetic rubber prices have gone up because of a lean season in Kerala along with rise in crude oil prices. Hence, domestic prices of natural rubber have not fallen despite the surge in imports. Prices were hovering around Rs 102 per kg few weeks ago and at present it is Rs 96.

Turmeric Domestic Demand Remained Steady - May 20, 2009

Turmeric Although domestic demand remained steady, no major price movement was observed at the spot markets for turmeric. Arrivals have halved to around 20,000 bags at major markets and would slow down further in the coming weeks. The price of turmeric at benchmark Nizamabad markets is in the range of Rs5,150/5,200 per quintal. Sowing is scheduled to take place in the coming season with the onset of the monsoon.

The given price of turmeric might induce farmers to plant more of turmeric, thereby weakening the medium-term fundamentals. We maintain our bearish view in the medium term on account of low demand as the peak season has ended while supply might increase due to high price.

Cardamom Prices Up On Strong Demand - May 20, 2009

Kochi: Cardamom prices continued their last week's increasing momentum at all auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu on account of slight arrivals along with good buying support. On Sunday, the individual average prices increased to Rs 650 a kg at the KCPMC auction at Vadanmettu from Rs 635 a kg on Friday. On Wednesday and Thursday, there were no auctions due to the elections.

Spot Rubber Went Higher - May 20, 2009

Kottayam: On Tuesday, the physical rubber prices went up mainly on reasonable gains on NMCE rubber futures and the predictions on a fast approaching monsoon. However, there were no major consuming industries in the buyers queue. Sheet rubber raised sharply to Rs 98 from Rs 94.50 a kg.

RSS 4 increased at its June futures to Rs 97.75 (96), July to Rs 95.76 (93.99), August to Rs 93.32 (92.26) and September futures to Rs 91 (89.40) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

RSS 3 raised at its May futures to Yen 154 (151.1) (Rs 76.46), June to Yen 155 (151.1), July to Yen 157.7 (153.3), August to Yen 160.5 (155), September to Yen 162.5 (157.3) and October to Yen 164.8 (159.2) a kg at its day session while it finished consecutively at Yen 157.8 (Rs 78.35), Yen 156.6, 158.8, 161.1, 162.6 and 164.8 a kg during the night session on Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).

RSS 3 dropped further to Rs 80.22 (81.99) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM). Its spot declined to Rs 84.45 (87.26) a kg at Bangkok.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 98 (95); RSS-5: 95 (92.50); ungraded: 93 (90); ISNR 20: 92 (90) and latex 60 per cent: 70 (69).

Govt Revokes Ban On Wheat Futures Trade - May 16, 2009

The government has cleared the way for trade in wheat futures. According to the sources, the government has given the formal clearance and the contracts are being finalized by the exchanges. However, the ban on rice and pulses future trade will persist. Forward Markets Commission Chairman BC Khatua confirmed that the ban had been withdrawn.

When asked if the ban could be revoked in other commodities too, he said, "We will take up the matter with the government regarding trade in rice futures shortly."

National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) traded wheat contracts before the government ban.

They will have to look for permission from commodities regulator Forward Markets Commission before launching the contracts again. NMCE CEO Anil Misha said that he hoped to launch the contracts, subject to regulatory clearance, within the next 7-10 days.

Government had banned trade in wheat, rice and pulses in February 2007 after food grain prices were increasing speedily. The government ban wanted to check speculation in these commodities with the ban on futures trade.

Comexes Revenue Rises 45 Per Cent In April - May 15, 2009

The turnover of 22 commodity exchanges in the country increased by 45 per cent mainly spurred by agri futures, in the first month of the current financial year to Rs 4,89,988 crore as against Rs 3,37,814 crore in the corresponding month of previous year, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) said on Wednesday.

Futures trading in agricultural commodities went up in April 2009-10, with business volumes jumping to Rs 85,828 crore from Rs 57,842 crore in a year-ago period, the commodity market regulator FMC said in a statement. While bullion trade grew by 27.35 per cent to Rs 2,16,286 crore from the previous year, it said.

During April 16-30, the turnover of the leading exchange MCX stood at Rs 2,03,866 crore while the leading agri-commodity bourse NCDEX recorded a business of Rs 37,474 crore, FMC, which releases data every fortnight, said.

Other national level exchange, Ahmedabad-based NMCE, registered a turnover of Rs 6,983 crore, it said.

Spot Rubber Remains Weak - May 15, 2009

Kottayam: On Wednesday, spot rubber remained weak. According to sources, a leading tyre manufacturer was buyer on sheet rubber during the session at lower levels. The grade surrendered to Rs 96.50 from Rs 97.50 a kg following the falls in domestic futures on NMCE. The transactions were in a low key.

The May futures for RSS 4 dropped to Rs 94.50 (96.11), June futures to Rs 94.75 (97.06), July to Rs 92.35 (94.54) and August to Rs 90 (92.10) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

RSS 3 improved at its May futures to Yen 162 (158.5) (Rs 83.88), June to Yen 162.9 (160.5), July to Yen 165.8 (162), August to Yen 168.9 (164.2), September to Yen 170.8 (166) and October to Yen 172.8 (168) a kg on Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).

RSS 3 went up to Rs 84.75 (84.15) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM). The grade (spot) improved to Rs 87.30 (86.66) a kg at Bangkok.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 96.50 (97.50); RSS-5: 93 (93); ungraded: 89 (90); ISNR 20: 91.50 (92) and latex 60 per cent: 69 (69).

Pepper Futures Decrease Further - May 15, 2009

Kochi: On Thursday, the pepper futures market dropped due to bearish operations as all the contracts dropping considerably. There has not been any export buying while the domestic demand is being met by movements from Karnataka at Rs 12,700 to Rs 12,750 by most of the Coorg operators evading tax in the process, market sources said.

May contract fell by Rs 107 on NCDEX to Rs 12,509 a quintal. June and July dropped by Rs 128 and Rs 159 respectively to Rs 12,671 and Rs 12,810 a quintal.

Total turnover on NCDEX went up by 296 tonnes to 3,175 tonnes while total open interest declined by 42 tonnes to 7,383 tonnes. Open interest for May dropped by 229 tonnes to 4,673 tonnes while June and July moved up by 88 tonnes and 96 tonnes respectively.

Restraints On Top Of Sell To Other Countries Of Rice - May 12, 2009

According to the Commerce Ministry's decision, shipment for export of rice to African countries through parastatals must enclose at least 25 per cent brokens content. However Commerce Ministry permitted the export of up to 10 lakh tonnes (lt) to African countries. The 10 lt of rice permitted to be exported has been allocated among 21 countries.

"The rice to be exported shall be with a minimum of 25 per cent of brokens", the Directorate General of Foreign Trade's (DGFT) notification, dated May 6, has said.

"On the other hand, you have a condition of a minimum export price (MEP) of $1,100 a tonne below which no basmati rice can be shipped out. And now, the same Commerce Ministry is saying that you can export non-basmati rice only if it has a minimum 25 per cent brokens, which corresponds to the most commonly consumed grades here", said Mr Vijay Sethia, former President of the All-India Rice Exporters' Association (AIREA).

Pepper Futures Carry On Just Before Go Down - May 12, 2009

Kochi: On Monday, pepper futures market witnessed high volatility and closed below the last weekend close on liquidation. Operators holding long positions were seen liquidating May and switching over to close positions. There was no selling pressure on the spot. May contract dropped by Rs 137 to Rs 12,540 a quintal on NCDEX.

June and July fell by Rs 143 and Rs 157 respectively to Rs 12,737 and Rs 12,861 a quintal. Total turnover increased by 175 tonnes to 5,401 tonnes. Further, the total open interest moved up by 9 tonnes to 7,891 tonnes. May open interest fell by 283 tonnes to 3,015 tonnes. June and July went up by 178 tonnes and 109 tonnes respectively.

Spot Rubber Prices Refuse Happening Large-Scale Cues - May 12, 2009

Kottayam: On Monday, the domestic rubber prices witnessed fall. In the physical market, the rates dropped following the declines in futures, an observer said. There was no fresh demand from the major consuming industries.

The May futures for RSS 4 declined to Rs 96.06 (100.06), June to Rs 94.51 (97.68), July to Rs 91.67 (94.23) and August futures to Rs 90 (91.97) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

In the international market, RSS 3 weakened at its May futures to Yen 162.2 (168) (Rs.81.85), June to Yen 163.5 (169), July to Yen 166 (171.5), August to Yen 168.5 (173.8), September to Yen 170.7 (175.6) and October futures to Yen 172.9 (177.5) a kg on Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).

The grade slipped to Rs 84.20 (85.39) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 98 (100); RSS-5: 94 (97); ungraded: 90 (92); ISNR 20: 92.50 (96) and latex 60 per cent: 69 (70).

Soybean Demand Has Been Almost 64 Per Cent Less This April - May 11, 2009

Soybean has traded negative all through the last week on account of lower demand for soy products and some other concerns. Spot soybean traded around Rs2,600-2,650 per quintal. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s report to be released tomorrow will act as a guiding catalyst for future developments in soybean.

Sowing is underway in the US and China and in India sowing will begin in the coming month, as monsoon sets in. With price ruling at high, we may expect good sowing this year, which in turn could weigh on soybean price.

Soybean demand has been almost 64% less this April as compared to that in the April of the last year, mainly led by steep price rise. The soybean demand has also been hit as the Indian parity has been trading at par with those from Argentina and Brazil. The outbreak of swine flu could hit soybean demand and hence the price in the near term. Soybean exports have fell by 64% in April this year vis-à-vis that in April of the last year.

On soyoil front, increased supply from international market has weighed on Indian market. The price has also been hit by the correction in palm oil price on BMD. The correction in oil complex may continue in the coming weeks too as palm oil production increases in coming months, while higher price of soybean may attract higher acreage this year.

Crude Oil, Gold And Silver Trading Breakout Signals - May 11, 2009

Gold, Silver and Oil breaks out to new multi week highs and shows signs of more strength to come. The charts below show both weekly and daily trading analysis pointing to higher prices for these commodities. Gold closed on Friday at a 5 week high, breaking above its resistance trend line on the weekly chart.

Weekly chart pattern breakouts carry much more momentum behind a move, than daily charts. This chart of gold (GLD fund) clearly shows a weekly breakout in the price of gold.

Also, I have drawn what appears to be a very large reverse Head & Shoulders pattern. It is this pattern, which is pointing to a much higher price for gold. The measured move for this pattern is the distance from the Bottom (head) to the top (neckline), which is about $300 per ounce. If we see this chart break above the neckline over the next few months, then most technical traders will be buying gold up to $1300 per ounce, which would be the next major price target.

Spot Rubber Set Of Laws Unwavering - May 09, 2009

Kottayam: On Friday, spot rubber prices continued to remain approximately unchanged. The lack of confidence in domestic futures and the declining volumes in the physical markets combined to keep the sentiments neutral in a comparatively dull trading session. The rubber futures ended down on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

The May futures moved down to Rs 100.15 (101.77), June to Rs 97.80 (99.07), July to Rs 94.26 (95.28) and August to Rs 92.00 (92.55) a kg for RSS 4. RSS 3 slipped at its May futures to Yen 168 (170) (Rs 83.30), June to Yen 169 (170.5), July to Yen 171.5 (172.8), August to Yen 173.8 (174.6), September to Yen 175.6 (175.9) and October to Yen 177.5 (178.3) a kg on Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). The grade weakened to Rs 85.39 (86.31) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 100 (100); RSS-5: 97 (97); ungraded: 92 (91); ISNR 20: 96 (96) and latex 60 per cent: 70 (70).

Pulse Prices Turned Strong On Weak Supply - May 08, 2009

Pulses have risen with prices of tur (pigeon peas), urad (black matpe) and moong (green gram) increasing between Rs 500 and Rs 1,200 per quintal in the past four months. According to local traders, prices dipped with a fall in imports. An anticipated shortage with farmers is also weighing on sentiments as they are planning to shift acreage to more remunerative crops such as soybean and cotton.

Imports are less due to non-parity in domestic and global prices. At present, the landed price at Mumbai port of lemon tur variety is Rs 3,900 per quintal ($740 per tonne) against ready price (price at which seller is available) of Rs 3,650.

Similarly, landed price for urad is Rs 3,100 per quintal ($600 per tonne), against ready price of Rs 2,800. Imports have become costlier with the rupee depreciating from 45-47 levels last year to 50-51 levels this year against the dollar.

Oilmeal Exports Drop 64 Per Cent In April - May 08, 2009

Oilmeal exports fell 64 per cent in April, mainly due to the drop in meat production in Europe, US and other countries and hold back in poultry industry.

Apart from these, few Asian countries also suffered from the crises in the livestock industry that lead to lower consumption of oilmeal.

According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India, oilmeal exports in April dropped to 2.31 lakh tonnes against 6.46 lakh tonnes during the corrosonding period a year ago.

Pepper Domestic Demand Continued To Be Strong - May 08, 2009

Kochi: On Wednesday, for the third successive day, sliding trend sustained in the pepper mainly on selling pressure. The major holders were liquidating and switching over to close positions.

Additionally, selling pressure was also be presented in the Coorg region of Karnataka where from North Indian dealers were buying good quantities of the material, albeit inferior, and moving out evading tax. Ninety per cent of the Coorg produce is said to be marketed without paying tax. No tax in Tamil Nadu also accelerated the selling pressure. Domestic demand continued to be strong.

On Wednesday, May contract declined by Rs 178 to Rs 12,725 on NCDEX. June and July contracts fell by Rs 179 and Rs 140 respectively to close at Rs 12,905 and Rs 13,100 a quintal. Total turnover declined by 201 tonnes to 4,348 tonnes.

Mango Exports May Drop Amid Low Output - May 06, 2009

Mango ouput is likely to plummet by roughly 20 per cent as crops damaged this year. Crop output may be lower by around 10 per cent, according to the initial estimates by agriculture ministry. Last week's pest attack in northern India has further dampened the situation.

"There has been some adverse impact of erratic climate on mango production in Gujarat and Maharashtra but the crop was normal in both northern and southern parts of the country when surveyed recently.

On average, the mango production will be lower by less than 10 per cent this year across the country", Union Agriculture Ministry officials said. But this comment was made before the pest attack which spoiled the northern crop of Dussehri mangoes.

According to the data available with the ministry, total mango production in 2006-07 was approximately at 13.5 million tonnes. The official data for 2007-08 is not available, but according to industry estimates, around 11.9 million tonnes of mangoes were grown in the country last year. Current year's crop is estimated to be a slight above 10 million tonnes.

Fix Duty On Cloves On Kg-Basis: Dealers - May 06, 2009

Kochi: Imports of cloves under invoicing heavily is depriving the Government of import duty revenue. The proceeds are going on in the country ever since the price increased due to sharp drop in global production.

When the prices of Zanzibar cloves was at $4,500 a tonne for direct shipments and $4,800 a tonne for shipments from Dubai, the direct prices were quoted at $3,500 a tonne and at that rate the importer would get a "straight benefit of Rs 30 a kg," trading sources alleged.

In Mumbai, cloves dealers association is in contact with Union Ministry of Finance and the Central Board of Customs, New Delhi, regarding the issue. Dealers requested to fix duty based on prices for a kg in the case of cloves, cassia, poppyseeds, ginger and star aniseeds so as to stop the deceitful activities in the import of these spices.

Spot Rubber Witnesses Miscellaneous Trading - May 06, 2009

Kottayam: On Tuesday, the physical rubber prices showed a mixed trend. According to sources, a feeble closing in domestic futures and the absence of global guidance took the steam out of the market with minor selling from traders.

RSS 4 declined at its May futures to Rs 100.40 (101.28), June to Rs 96 (96.47), July to Rs 92.35 (92.50) and August to Rs 90 (90.42) a kg on National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE). The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) remained closed owing to Children's Day. RSS 3 improved further to Rs 85.80 (84.75) a kg on Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 100 (100.50); RSS-5: 97 (97); ungraded: 92 (92); ISNR 20: 96 (96.50) and latex 60 per cent: 70 (71).

Metals Observes Increase Scheduled Hopes Of Improvement - May 05, 2009

All major base metals ended the weak on a strong note after remaining low for past five days, as the US consumer confidence index for April 2009 improved unexpectedly and manufacturing sector contracted less severely.

A weak dollar, tightening supplies and hints of a potential recovery in the global economy helped copper, the leader of the base metals pack, to end at $4,510 a tonne on London Metal Exchange (LME), which is the highest point over the two preceding weeks.

Copper for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange''s Comex division increased by 5.35 cents, to settle at $2.1 a pound, which is the highest level on a closing basis since April.

The consumer confidence index for the US in the month of April stood at 39.2 points, against 29.6 points earlier forecast by the Conference Board of the US, the architect of the index. This increased buying activities in almost every base metal counter, said analysts at Angel Commodities.

Increase in copper consumption to 9% in the month of April has also added to the recent rally in red metal. Copper''s inventory at LME diminished by roughly 10,000 tonne over the past fortnight to end the month nearly at 4 lakh tonne.

Zinc also grew more than 6% within a week to end at $1,510 a tonne by the weakend. Lead, on the other hand, increased to $1,400 a tonne from $1,331 a tonne on a week-on-week basis.

NCDEX, MCX Struggle Arrives By Summit Encourage - May 05, 2009

National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) files a petition in the Supreme Court against commodity markets regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) on the issue of transaction charges.

"I am not aware of NCDEX having filed a petition in the SC. Since we have filed a caveat in the SC, a notice will have to be sent to us by the bench hearing the case before it is admitted for hearing," said BC Khatua, FMC chairman.

Earlier Bombay High Court, on February 5, had dismissed NCDEX's contention that challenged FMC's right to issue a directive staying its circular to drastically bring down transaction charges to step up dwindling volumes and increase participation.

The High Court directed NCDEX to give FMC a fortnight to justify (to the regulator) how a reduction in transaction charges would lead to its own and the broader market's benefit.

However, on February 19, FMC passed an order that quashed NCDEX's circular on grounds that the bourse was unable to furnish a satisfactory explanation justifying how a drastic reduction in transaction fees would not jeopardize its own and the market's interests within the time limit set by the HC.

NCDEX, on the other hand said that it had not dishonored any of the regulator's existing guidelines as there was no directive that exchanges should seek approval of or give prior intimation to FMC while prescribing a reduction in transaction rates.

Copper Supply And Demand Order Unmoving Individual - May 04, 2009

Copper to its recent high of $2.20 a pound. If demand is down, how is it possible that the price of copper went up 40% to 50% within the last three months alone "We're playing by a different set of rules now," says Gianni Kovacevic, corporate development strategist at Global Opportunities AG. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Gianni discusses the changing face of copper and the new rule book being written for it.

Gianni, can you give us your short-term and long-term view on the copper market. Any sense of what’s driving copper to its recent high of $2.20 a pound.

Certainly any commodity that is based in U.S. dollars can be considered money, and within the past six months, since the breathtaking fall of all commodity prices in all asset classes, we’ve seen copper bottom out at about $1.25. Since then, during the last three months, it has risen back up 40% to 50%. As copper traded below $1.50 for an extended period of time, the world’s biggest user of copper, China, was able to buy market-finish copper on the market at $1.25 to $1.50.

There are sophisticated people that still say that it's going to fall back into the $1.00 a pound range—which is the marginal cost of production, or what it costs copper miners to get it out of the ground. In this particular market, we’re in a situation where companies cannot get debt or equity financing—at least they were not able to at the end of ’08 and the early part of 2009. So why go through the exercise of developing a project when you can buy a finished product at the price of the cost of production.

A lot of the world's experts were scratching their heads because all they saw was demand destruction and terrible balance sheets. How in the world could copper go up in a market like that. Demand and supply tells us that when people aren’t buying stuff, the price should go down, yet as I said, the price of copper has gone back up significantly in the last three months.

Govt Cut Coffee Output Estimates By 5 Per Cent - May 04, 2009

According to the revised post-monsoon coffee crop estimate issued by the Coffee Board, India's coffee output stands at 2.6 lakh tones for the crop year ending September 2009, which is 5 per cent lower from the previous estimate of 2.8 lakh tonnes.

The lesser output was mainly attributed to the inconsistent monsoon crop along with non-availability of labour. The revised post-monsoon estimate confirms the quantum of production during a crop year.

The estimate also indicates a huge fall of 21 per cent (drop of 20,500 tonnes) in Arabica production, while Robusta output is expected to be down by 5.3 per cent (a shortfall of 10,200 tonnes). At 79,500 tonnes, Arabica output is the lowest during the last 14 years.

"The drop in output is bad news and comes at a time when prices have shown a rising trend," said an exporter.